Alas, those days are long gone. Inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.
Though inflation peaked back in 2022, the fact remains that it's still too high for the central bank's comfort. That's why the Consumer Price Index or CPI report has become pretty much the star of the economic data calendar.
Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.Markets desperately want the Fed to stop raising interest rates – and especially look forward to a time when the central bank pivots to rate cuts – but that won't happen until after inflation is under control. There's also the very real fear that rising rates could cause the economy to fall into a recession.
Per the BLS, prices for the goods and services used to calculate the are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the .
The CPI report is broken down into many subcategories, but the two main ones you'll hear most about on CPI day are headline CPI and core CPI. The headline number is the main inflation gauge. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is considered to be a better predictor of future inflation. The data are expressed as percent changes, and are measured both month-to-month and year-over-year.
As for the next CPI report, the February inflation figures are slated for release by the BLS on March 12 at 8:30 am Eastern time. The predicts annual headline inflation to increase by 3.3%, up from the 3.1% rate seen in the January CPI report. On a monthly basis, February inflation is forecast to rise 0.3%.
February's core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 3.7% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis.
The inflation data will certainly influence what the central bank decides to do at the next Fed meeting. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged when it last met, and isn't expected to start cutting until its June meeting.
RELATED CONTENT
-
Should You Enroll in Medicare if You Still Have a Job? This question is being asked more than ever these days, so here’s what you can do when it comes to making Medicare decisions while you’re still working.
By Jae W. Oh Published
-
Donald Trump's Net Worth Hits $6.5 Billion, Despite Legal Woes Boosted by Truth Social stock deal, Trump is thrust into the world’s wealthiest 500 people on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index
By Kathryn Pomroy Published
-
Is A Recession Looming? Two Big Bank CEOs See It That Way Recession is likely, Citi's CEO told a Senate panel today, a sentiment echoed by JP Morgan's chief executive last week.
By Joey Solitro Published
-
More Signs of Belt-Tightening and a Slowing Economy: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Although fewer banks are tightening lending standards, more businesses and households are feeling the squeeze.
By Rodrigo Sermeño Published
-
The Era of Super-Low Interest Rates Could Be Over: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter We’re likely never going back to the historically low rates that prevailed in late 2019 and early 2020.
By David Payne Published
-
The Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady The Fed cautions that inflation remains high and it is prepared to adjust its monetary policy ‘as appropriate if risks emerge.’
By Esther D’Amico Published
-
5 Ways to Shop for a Low Mortgage Rate
Becoming a Homeowner Rates are high this year, but you can still find an affordable loan.
By Daniel Bortz Published
-
Banks Lost Billions on Bad Loans Last Quarter: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Bank deposits are also down, and more people are tapping into their savings.
By Rodrigo Sermeño Published
-
Kiplinger Special Report: Key Business Costs for 2024
Economic Forecasts Looking at business costs for 2024, expect slight cost increases across the board, from insurance rates to shipping expenses. Profits will be up, too.
By John Miley Published
-
Bond Yields Highest Since 2008 The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased 1.6 basis points to reach 4.258% on Wednesday afternoon, up from 4.22% on Tuesday. This is the highest level it had been since June 13, 2008.
By Erin Bendig Published